UKRAINE UPDATE: 5 AUGUST 2024: Zelensky displays F-16 fighter jets from Western allies; ‘LNG ship’ docks at sanctioned Russian plant

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A large vessel docked at Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in the Arctic last week, according to satellite images, in what appeared to be the first move to circumvent US sanctions against the facility.

Ukrainian forces said they struck a military airfield as part of a mass drone attack on several Russian regions, while claiming a hit on Friday had sunk a Black Sea Fleet submarine in Crimea.

Zelensky shows US-made F-16 fighter jets in flight near Kyiv

Ukraine’s president hailed a new era for the country’s military as he showcased a pair of Western warplanes flying near Kyiv, proof that the long-awaited jets had finally arrived.

Two F-16s zoomed overhead while reporters toured an air base on the outskirts of the country’s capital on Sunday as Ukraine marked its annual Air Force Day. The jets provided by Ukraine’s allies flew alongside Soviet-made Mig-29 and Su-27 planes.

“Our guys are already using them for Ukraine,” Volodymyr Zelensky said. He declined to elaborate on how many jets had arrived and which tasks their pilots were fulfilling.

The number of Western jets delivered so far “isn’t enough” added Zelensky as he urged partners to expand the training programme for pilots and engineers. He also reiterated the call for the provision of more advanced air defence systems.

Read more: Ukraine receives first F-16 fighter jets after long wait 

Ukraine is still unable to defend all of its territory from Russian missile attacks, even as its “air shield” had become one of the strongest in Europe, said Zelensky

Ukraine received the first delivery of US-built F-16 fighter jets from Nato partners last week after more than a year of talks, pledges and preparation. Zelensky repeatedly asked his nation’s allies for modern warplanes to help Ukraine offset Moscow’s air superiority.

The arrival of the F-16s comes at a time when fighting has become deadlocked along a 1,270km frontline in Ukraine’s east and southeast, with neither side able to achieve significant territorial gains.

Satellite images show LNG ship at sanctioned Russian plant

A large vessel docked at Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in the Arctic last week, according to satellite images, in what appeared to be the first move to circumvent US sanctions against the facility.

Novatek, which leads the facility, has not commented on the arrival of a vessel, and the images, taken by the Sentinel 2 satellite, did not confirm LNG is being loaded.

However, the ship is a roughly 280m-long vessel docked at the Arctic LNG 2 facility around 1 August, almost exactly the length of a typical LNG vessel.

The satellite image also shows a visible flame at a nearby facility, which probably means that it is flaring gas and could be ramping up LNG production.

“There is no doubt this is an LNG carrier,” said Mehdy Touil, an LNG lead specialist at Calypso Commodities. “The large flare indicates a restart of the facility.”

Novatek didn’t respond to a request for comment outside of normal business hours.

The US imposed sanctions in November to prevent the start of exports from Arctic LNG 2. While the facility began production in December, no LNG has been shipped as restrictions kept foreign companies away and stopped delivery of the specialised, ice-ready carriers.

That has made gas a key area where Western sanctions have had an immediate, tangible impact on Russia’s wartime economy. It has also encouraged Russia to begin working to create an alternative fleet of vessels to carry its gas — just as what happened in oil.

The ship visible on satellite images does not register on tracking data gathered by Bloomberg, a common feature of “dark fleet” vessels, which frequently spoof their locations elsewhere or switch off transponders to avoid being traced. It was first spotted by the maritime website gCaptain.

Ukraine says it sank Russian Black Sea sub and struck air base

Ukrainian forces said they struck a military airfield as part of a mass drone attack on several Russian regions, while claiming a hit on Friday had sunk a Black Sea Fleet submarine in Crimea.

The overnight UAV barrage hit the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov region, where Russian glide bombs and other items are stored, the Ukrainian General Staff said on Facebook. The base, in a region which borders parts of eastern Ukraine occupied by Moscow’s forces, houses one of Russia’s fighter jet squadrons.

Fuel depots were also hit and caught fire in the Belgorod and Rostov regions, while a drone struck a residential building in the Oryol region without causing fatalities, according to Russian news agencies.

It’s unclear if the strikes at Morozovsk hit air defence objects and aviation equipment. In total, 75 drones were shot down in the attack, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.

Separately, the General Staff said in a Facebook post that the Russian B-237 submarine Rostov-on-Don was struck in the port of Sevastopol on the annexed Crimea peninsula on Friday.

“As a result of the hit, the boat sank on the spot,” the General Staff said.

The Kilo-class submarine, capable of firing cruise missiles, was damaged in a shipyard attack in September 2023 and was being tested after undergoing repairs, according to Ukraine’s statement, which also claimed a hit on an anti-aircraft missile complex in Crimea.

Ukraine’s allies worried about power of Zelensky’s top aide

When world leaders gathered in Switzerland in June to discuss the war in Ukraine, the choreography offered a glimpse into the power games playing out behind the scenes in Kyiv as Zelensky seeks to maintain support.

As the presidents and prime ministers gathered for the family photo in the picturebook Alpine setting, a towering Ukrainian official in green fatigues was positioned in the centre of the group, barely an arm’s length from his boss.

Anyone who’s dealt with the Ukrainian president is likely to recognise Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff who is constantly at his side. His incongruous position — in front of US Vice-President Kamala Harris, between the Swiss president and the future head of Nato — indicates the growing influence of Zelensky’s closest adviser within Ukraine’s wartime hierarchy. An adviser to Yermak said the lineup for the picture was organised by the Swiss hosts and Yermak’s inclusion reflected his role in the meeting.

As Russia’s assault stretches deep into its third year, some of Ukraine’s international backers are growing concerned about just how much decision-making is concentrated in the hands of 52-year-old Yermak, a one-time film producer, who has become the sole gatekeeper to the president, with a direct say in everything from foreign policy to military planning.

“I’m not involved in every job, I’m only coordinating,” Yermak said in an interview at his office in Kyiv on Wednesday. “Yes, I’m very proud that the president asks my opinion, but he asks for my opinion because I get results.”

The concerns about Yermak are surfacing at a perilous moment for Zelenskiy.

Ukraine is struggling to fend off a renewed Russian offensive and bracing for the next winter with its energy infrastructure in tatters, while the US election and the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House pose questions over how long Kyiv will be able to count on the support of its allies. The president himself is also vulnerable to accusations that he lacks legitimacy — his term would have ended on 20 May had martial law not postponed an election.

The idea that Zelensky lacks a proper mandate to lead the Ukrainian war effort is a talking point pushed by his enemies in the Kremlin. But like most of the best propaganda, it taps into real questions over how viable it is to suspend the normal democratic process over the long run, especially with signs of frustrations with the government starting to emerge.

The president bridled at criticism that Yermak’s ascent has amassed power in too few hands, saying that scrutiny over his chief of staff fits too cosily with a Kremlin-led disinformation campaign.  “He does what I tell him to do — and he fulfils the tasks,” he said.

Yermak’s rise has been accompanied by the fall of many others near the top — a parliamentary speaker, a central bank governor and his predecessor as chief of staff among them — often at the hands of the top aide, according to the people familiar with the issue who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A further shakeup is in the offing. The Ukrainian leader confirmed last month that he was considering a Cabinet overhaul, though he declined to comment on widespread speculation that he may swap out Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

“The head of the presidential administration informally has always had a great deal of power in Ukraine,” said Oxana Shevel, an associate professor of political science at Tufts University near Boston, who added that mistrust of Yermak among the Ukrainian public may limit the aide’s options in future.

Yermak isn’t one to operate in the shadows of power and — at 1.9m — he towers over Zelensky. His social media profile is replete with one-on-one images of Yermak with Pope Francis, French President Emmanuel Macron and others — often with his boss nowhere in sight.

A June 7 post on his Telegram channel showed Yermak shaking hands with US President Joe Biden, while Zelensky nearby greeted Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin — a protocol reversal that triggered wry commentary in Kyiv.

The dynamic has prompted a common quip among Ukrainians on the chief of staff: “He’s not number one, but he’s not number two either.”

The power dynamic is a serious matter for Nato allies and international donors — including the European Union and the International Monetary Fund — who have made transparency a benchmark condition for transferring funds.

The personnel moves attributed to Yermak have raised concern that any further tightening among Zelensky and his inner circle could sap energy for badly needed reforms — even measures to fight corruption and bolster the rule of law, according to people familiar with assessments in Western capitals.

But Yermak’s mandate is broader than that of any of his predecessors. He’s been central in every key wartime decision: replacing Zelensky’s top general, sourcing weapons supplies, negotiating security guarantees, overseeing prisoner swaps and — at the Swiss summit — winning over the Global South to Kyiv’s cause.

Some officials have compared his role to a chief executive officer, with Zelensky acting as chairperson.

“Of course I read and hear about people talking about my power, but please, tell me, how am I using this power? To work 24 hours, seven days, to take on more obligations and more risks,” Yermak said in the interview. Zelensky, he added, “is a person who thinks it’s important to listen and to know the different opinions. He always makes the decisions himself.”

Allies have been watching closely. The replacement of Ukraine’s popular top general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, in February raised hackles in Nato capitals over a shakeup just as Kyiv confronted a fresh Russian offensive.

In May, Yermak was instrumental in the removal of Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, an official who once had a direct line to Zelensky and was close to the Biden administration, according to people familiar with the ouster.

The presidential office failed to adequately explain the departure among other personnel changes, leaving foreign governments to puzzle over the move, the people said. DM

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